The more I think about this, the advantage is in Google's court, but Reddit priced at $24B (net of cash) means it could work quite well for RDDT investors.
Ultimately, Google owns the front door, and they've disintermediated other businesses like this. Reddit's best asset is that so many queries explicitly specify "reddit". But at the end of the day, those users chose to type those queries into Google. If Google can provide a satisfactory answer, the behavior could change.
I think Reddit should move away from getting cash in return for data and ask for product changes that improve the Google experience but also create traffic for Reddit. It would be a win-win. People are asking for human input when they add "reddit" to a query. If Google can improve AI Overviews to give more insight into what's happening on Reddit, highlight relevant threads, and provide ways to follow a thread or even ask a question on Reddit from the overview, it could be net positive for both companies.
Additionally, at 13x forward earnings, Reddit could actually be an easy buy for Google, and then they would own the human input that will be increasingly valuable as AI content becomes more widespread. Reddit is valued at less than Google's FWD PE which means the additional earnings will be additive to Google's stock price.
Any product solutions that you think would work? Do you think a deal is possible?