‘Spider-Man’ Will Knock ‘The Odyssey’ Out of No. 1 This Weekend. Here’s Why - Barron’s

*(Pls go watch this show, I am a long suffering bag holder.)*

‘Spider-Man’ Will Knock ‘The Odyssey’ Out of No. 1 This Weekend. Here’s Why. - Barron’s
By Janet H. Cho

July 31, 2026 2:30 am EDT

Moviegoers and film industry analysts have enormous expectations for Spider-Man: Brand New Day, the latest installment about the tormented web slinger opening this Friday.

Marvel Studios’ Spider-Man: Brand New Day, distributed by Sony Pictures, swings into theaters this weekend and is expected to sell more than $200 million in domestic box office tickets, making it the biggest debut of 2026, with some estimates as high as $300 million or more.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/spider-man-the-odyssey-movies-box-office-hollywood-bbaed3ea

Here are five things to know about the movie.

Why is everyone talking about this Spider-Man movie?

If Brand New Day sells what analysts and theaters are projecting, it would surpass Walt Disney’s Toy Story 5, which sold $159.7 million of tickets its first weekend in June;Universal’s The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, which sold $131.7 million its first weekend in April; and Universal’s The Odyssey, which opened with $123.5 million two weeks ago.

“Spider-Man is one of, if not the most beloved super-heroes, and the movies, especially the Tom Holland ones, have been tremendously popular,” Eric Handler, Roth senior media and entertainment analyst, told Barron’s.

Although The Odyssey was “visually stunning,” especially when seen on a 70mm IMAX screen, Handler said Spider-Man probably has a broader fan base, including among children, who likely didn’t see the R-rated Odyssey. The PG-13-ratedBrand New Day also features other popular heroes from the Marvel Universe, including The Hulk (Mark Ruffalo).

Mike Hickey, an analyst with Benchmark Equity Research, wrote in a July 23 research note that Boxoffice Pro and Box Office Watch are both projecting Spider-Man’s domestic debut of $230 million to $250 million. “If that lands, it would likely reset the 2026 opening-weekend high and pull premium screens from The Odyssey,” he wrote.

Paul Dergarabedian, Rentrak’s head of marketplace trends, said the combination of The Odyssey andSpider-Man is going to “absolutely light up movie theaters this weekend.” He told Barron’s that “this will be one of the biggest summer movie weekends of all time, both in terms of the box office, but most importantly, in terms of what it means for the industry and how excited people are to go to the movie theater.”

Dergarabedian said only nine films in box office history have cleared a $200 million-plus domestic debut, not adjusted for inflation, and this would make Spider-Man: Brand New Day the tenth film to reach that milestone. The second-biggest domestic opening of all time, after Disney’sAvengers: Endgame’s $357.1 million opening in April 2019, was Spider-Man: No Way Home, with a $260.1 million debut in December 2021.

How massive is this movie to Hollywood?
The summer domestic box office since May 1 is at $3.05 billion through July 26, but Spider-Man: Brand New Day has the firepower to help push August’s revenue above $1 billion for the first time since 2016, and boost summer ticket totals past $4 billion, Dergarabedian said. Total domestic box office for the year is at $5.67 billion as of July 26, up 10% over the same period in 2025.

“If this weekend’s domestic box office lands in the $350 million-plus range, Spider-Man could represent roughly 71%+ of the entire theatrical marketplace,” Dergarabedian said, making it not only one of the biggest three-day domestic weekends ever, but potentially delivering “a massive year-over-year lift” compared with the same period last year, he added.

Why is Spider-Man expected to outperform The Odyssey internationally?

Christopher Nolan’s three-hour Odyssey opened in 3,919 locations in North America and more than 12,700 locations in 73 international markets. It has grossed more than $683.2 million worldwide in its first two weekends, including an estimated $334.2 million in domestic box office and $362.6 million internationally, and more than $100 from IMAX screenings, according to Rentrak.

Nolan’s film has surpassed Amazon MGM’s Project Hail Mary to become one of the year’s top five Hollywood movies internationally. But The Odysseystill hasn’t opened in some key markets, including South Korea (Aug. 5), China (Aug. 14), or Japan (Sept. 11).

Spider-Man is opening in 4,300 North American theaters, and demand has been so brisk that some major theater chains are offering showtimes every 15 minutes from dusk to dawn this weekend, according to Variety.

The film opened in China and South Korea on Wednesday, and opens in the U.S. and Japan on Friday. Hickey wrote that advance ticket sales in China surpassed RMB100M (about $14 million), and that midnight ticket sales exceeded $3.25 million across roughly 9,400 screenings as of July 28, according to Maoyan Pro, a film industry platform.
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“The global appeal for Spider-Man is massive,” Handler said. “International grosses have far surpassed North American revenue for each of the last three movies.” Of the more than $1.92 billion that Spider-Man: No Way Home grossed worldwide, more than $1.1 billion of that, or 58%, came from international audiences, according to BoxOfficeMojo. The film never opened in China.

How much do audiences love Spider-Man?

Sony’s first three Spider-Man movies, starring Tobey Maguire and Kirsten Dunst, made nearly $2.5 billion in worldwide box office between 2002 to 2007. The original Spider-Man sold $114.8 million in domestic tickets the first weekend it opened in May 2002, nearly as much as the $139 million it cost to make, according to BoxOfficeMojo.

The Amazing Spider-Man in 2012 and Amazing Spider-Man 2 (in 2104), both starring Andrew Garfield and Emma Stone, together sold $1.48 billion in global box office.

Spider-Man: Homecoming, starring Tom Holland, made $117 million its opening weekend in July 2017. It sold nearly $335 million in domestic box office and nearly $881 million worldwide.

Spider-Man: Far from Home, again with Holland, opened with $92.6 million in June 2019. It went on to sell $391.3 million domestically and $1.1 billion worldwide.

Spider-Man: No Way Home opened with $260.1 million in December 2021, the second-largest domestic box office debut of all time. It eventually sold $814.9 million domestically and more than $1.9 billion worldwide.

What is it about Tom Holland as Spider-Man?

This is the fourth Spider-Man movie starring the now-married actor Tom Holland as Peter Parker/Spider-Man and actress-model Zendaya as MJ. They were both seen in The Odyssey, as Telemachus and the Greek goddess Athena, respectively, but never shared any screentime.

In their 2021 movie, Spider-Man: No Way Home, “Something bad was going to happen, and the only way to stop it was to make everyone forget about me,” Spider-Man explains in the trailer for Brand New Day.

As Peter Parker helplessly watches MJ date another man because she can’t remember him, he says: “Sometimes Spider-Man has to do the hard thing, even if it breaks Peter Parker’s heart.”
Write to Janet H.