SOXX down 16% from June highs and we just got a +5.5% day. Rebound or dead cat?

Semis got crushed. SOXX dropped 20% off the June 22 peak, QQQ bled about 8% in the same stretch. Monday flipped the script fast, QQQ +1.9%, SOXX +5.5%, INTC and COHR both up 6-7%, and even the big names NVDA, AMD, MU, AVGO each tagged around +2%.

So now what. SOXX is still sitting 16% below the June high. One green day doesn't fix that.

The two camps I keep seeing: JPMorgan calling it a momentum rebound off oversold levels, BofA framing it more as a summer sentiment reset that needs earnings to confirm. Taiwan export orders came in at +59.4% YoY, smashed the +49.5% consensus. TSM flagged a pricing increase of up to 10% in 2027. Supply chain signals are actually decent.

Pulled the chart on moomoo and SOXX still looks like it needs to reclaim a lot of ground before this stops feeling like a relief rally.

61% Of fund managers in the latest BofA survey don't expect AI capex to get cut this year. That's the bull case in one line. But if earnings this week disappoint, that thesis gets tested hard.

Been adding back into semiconductor names on the dip. Am I early, or did I already miss the snap-back?