I’ve been researching ASML as a potential 1–2 year swing/medium-term hold and wanted to get the sub's take on current valuation around $1700–$1850.
My basic thesis is that they essentially hold a total monopoly on high-end EUV lithography machines, which makes them the ultimate bottleneck for advanced semiconductor manufacturing (TSMC, Intel, Samsung, etc.).
A few questions for anyone following the stock closely:
1. Is 1–2 years too short of a horizon given semi-industry capex cycles?
2. How much of the High-NA EUV upside and AI demand do you think is already priced in at current multiples?
Would love to hear if you are buying at this level or waiting for a pull-back.