Full disclosure I own shares so I'm obviously biased, but hear me out because the numbers are kinda insane.
**The Financials & Growth** Last earnings Q1 2026 revenue of $807M, up 34% YoY. That’s literally their 9th straight quarter growing over 30%. They bumped full year guidance to 30-32% growth, and 2025 revenue was $2.8B.
Margins are solid too (21% net income margin, 25% adj EBITDA).
The most ridiculous part is the backlog. They have $9.7B in remaining performance obligations and $14.3B in future contracted bookings (up 44%). That’s over $20B in guaranteed revenue lined up down the road.
**What's driving this?**
* AI revenue is up over 700% YoY. Yeah it's off a smaller base, but on the last earnings call management said 100% of the customers they pitched their AI stuff to ended up buying it.
* Dedrone (counter-drone stuff) is up 300%+
* International doubled and is now \~20% of their business
* Taser 10 is still printing money (up 19%)
* Body cams up 33%, and they are expanding into healthcare, retail, data centres, etc. with the Workforce Mini cam.
**The Ecosystem / Moat** They’re basically building the OS for public safety:
* Fusus: stitches together private/public cameras into one live feed for police departments.
* Drones: They partner with Skydio and Echodyne to set up automated drone pods on city rooftops. When a 911 call comes in, the operator presses a button and a drone launches in <60 seconds, flies there automatically, feeds 4K/thermal video, and can read license plates from 200m away. For officers on the ground, having a pair of eyes in the sky in under 60 seconds feels invaluable. These drones are also able to chain together so when one runs low on battery, a new one deploys and the existing one docks in its place to recharge.
* Evidence.com: holds all the footage and data in the cloud with FedRAMP approval.
* Recent buys: Carbyne + Prepared (Axon 911) and Leonardo DRS.
**Valuation** It's sitting around a $40B market cap on \~$3B revenue, trading around 13-14x P/S. P/E is in the high triple digits so traditional valuation metrics look terrifying compared to standard defence stocks (which trade around 5x P/S).
It is not cheap at all. But the moat is rock solid.
If a police department wanted to drop Axon for a cheaper alternative, they’d have to rip out their entire software stack, retrain every single officer, migrate terabytes of legal evidence, and break their connections with neighbouring police departments. No police chief is going to risk that nightmare to save a few bucks.
**10-Year Target** Because all these agencies are locked into the same central tech stack, the network effect is massive. Assuming they keep growing as drones, international, and non-police sectors take off, I think this could easily be a $400B-$500B company by 2036 (\~28% CAGR). In my opinion when a police department becomes part of the Axon ecosystem, they're locked in for the long haul.