AI capex boom vulnerable to '2008-style' real estate squeeze - Jefferies

Remaining Performance Obligations, or RPOs are forward contractual commitments that represent, a promise of future payment in exchange for future compute.

These RPOs totaled $2.1T at the end of Q1 2026, having grown 184% over the prior four quarters from $740B. Crucially, around half of this contracted backlog is owed by just two companies: OpenAI and Anthropi.

Microsoft's exposure to these two names runs to about 49% of its book, while Amazon sits at 51%, Google at 43%, and Oracle at 54%.

The problem: neither OpenAI nor Anthropic is profitable. The hyperscalers have effectively made concentrated unsecured loans to cash-burning tenants to fill data centers built on the assumption of future demand. It is a classic warning signal for infrastructure investors