Hello people. I wanted to share some thoughts on Intuit because the recent selloff after their q 3 2026 earnings report in may was a massive overreaction in my opinion. People panicked over TurboTax losing some cheap DIY filers, but if you actually dig into the Q3 10-Q and recent 10-K filings, the fundamentals are still ridiculous.
Look at the real numbers from their LTM and 2026 Q3 filing:
Right now INTU is trading around $290 a share. With roughly 276 million diluted shares outstanding, that gives us a market cap of about $80.2 billion. If you check the balance sheet from the latest 10-Q, they hold about $6.9 billion in long-term debt and around $8.4 billion in total cash and liquid investments. So Enterprise Value is calculated as Market Cap ($80.2B) plus Debt ($6.9B) minus Cash ($8.4B), which leaves us with an EV of roughly $78.7 billion.
For a software monopoly with an 80%+ gross margin, an EV under $80B is insane.
Now let us talk earnings, EBITDA, and income generation. Over the last twelve months, Intuit pulled in $20.93 billion in revenue and generated $6.92 billion in EBITDA. That puts their EV/EBITDA ratio at just 11.3x. Their trailing P/E ratio sits at roughly 17.8x based on $4.58 billion in net income (or \~$16.51 EPS). Compare that to historical software peers trading at 35x to 50x P/E, or even INTU's own historical P/E above 40x.
On top of that people forget they pay a solid quarterly dividend of $1.20 per share ($4.80 annualized). At the current stock price that gives you a 1.65% dividend yield on a conservative \~29% payout ratio. They have been growing that dividend by roughly 15% every single year for over a decade. So you are getting paid cash while you wait for the stock price to catch up to reality.
Here is where the DCF math gets really interesting. Intuit generated $6.1 billion in free cash flow over the last year. If we run a basic 10-year Discounted Cash Flow model using $6.1B as our base FCF, assuming a conservative 11% annual FCF growth rate for the next 5 years (down from their historical 15%+ growth), slowing down to 8% for years 6 through 10, and a standard 3% perpetual growth rate with an 8.5% discount rate (WACC):
Summing up the discounted cash flows over 10 years gives about $58 billion in present value. Adding the terminal value discounted back to today gives an enterprise value of roughly $232 billion, or around $840 per share fair value.
At the current price of $290, buying now is a huge opportunity. Going from $290 up to an upper fair value target of around $840-$850 represents a gain of over 190%. The TurboTax headline noise created a temporary dip, but QuickBooks, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp cash flows are far too steady for the stock to stay at an 11x EV/EBITDA forever.