Evening all – late night check-in on Intel. Hope you're hanging in there.
Today was ugly. INTC closed at $86.30, down nearly 6%. Touched $83.10 at the low before a weak bounce into the close. Volume was heavy – 78M shares changed hands, so sellers were definitely in control.
Overnight is hanging around $84.99, down another 1.5%. The bleeding hasn't fully stopped.
GEX setup:
Put Wall and Call Wall both at $90 – same level. Gamma flip around $89.87. We closed well below all of that, which means negative gamma territory. Dealers aren't hedging upside – they're hedging downside. [GEX? Never heard of it? Here ya go](https://www.moomoo.com/us/learn/detail-gamma-exposure-gex-understanding-dealer-hedging-flows-and-key-levels-107906-260473079?global_content=%7B%22promote_content%22:%2211067213%22,%22promote_id%22:20795,%22promote_type%22:43,%22sub_promote_id%22:1%7D)
Technically, we're below the middle Bollinger band (probably around $100ish). RSI in the low 30s – oversold but not extreme yet. MACD still negative and widening. Momentum is definitely not on our side.
Here's the thing – Q2 was actually solid. Revenue jumped 25%, data center/AI showed real growth, foundry is gaining traction. But the market fixated on higher CapEx guidance and the fact that foundry is still burning cash. Some analysts are still bullish with targets $115-160, but the market's in a "show me" mood right now.
Near-term, $83-85 is the zone to watch. Hold that and we could see a bounce toward $90-95. Break it and $78-80 comes into play pretty quick.
Overnight at $84 is basically sitting on that support. Let's see if buyers show up.
What's your move – scaling in or waiting for a clearer signal?
DYOD🫡