Here’s my awesome and epic DD with no numbers to back it up:
investors have been parking money in APPL as the semis have been selling off and has been a major contributor to APPLs recent run. If APPLs earnings report goes well, the price may pump even more on top of the already inflated price. I believe that investors will rotate out of APPL a bit after earnings to buy the dip on the Semis and in an effort to not get burned if they bought into APPL at the inflated price.
The inflated Pre-earnings APPL price + a good earnings report + investors re-entering their semiconductor positions at a discount, while locking in gains from APPL may create a perfect storm for a large price move downward.
My position is $315 puts for 8/14, and may roll farther out if necessary.
Or it goes sideways/continues upward and I get my pockets violated!!