I'm going to try and make a bit of sense out of the short volume here. As a caveat, this is not an exact science, not even close. We simply don't have all the data needed to truly assess short volume.
Today was a low volume melt up, not a whole lot of pressure in either direction. And then with about 20 minutes left, there was a ton of short volume. You can see the big blocks of sales in the RH 1-second data:
https://preview.redd.it/2a6wa9xc31gh1.png?width=3018&format=png&auto=webp&s=b6d64279780b62091244e2d9c9bddb8571dfda68
And that ties perfectly to the IBKR short volume chart, about \~150,000 shares were sold short. And that number will get bigger in the next few hours.
https://preview.redd.it/ulbibuak31gh1.png?width=1349&format=png&auto=webp&s=05d871c471ae24da405325ac9df8390be3301f9e
The last three trading days, the short volume has been trending way up. Yesterday it was 72%. We should have today's number is a few hours.
https://preview.redd.it/8sh5dqjx31gh1.png?width=1104&format=png&auto=webp&s=f24e0569c9a6d2e286d4576378942aab81f10b50
Again, these are all snapshots. But when you piece of enough of the snapshots together, you can start to see a partial picture. I also liked how the borrow fee was climbing all day. And this is still really low volume.
To be a bit bearish here, the 19P and 24P caught some serious volume. But I think they were opened and closed today. We'll see what the OI looks like tomorrow. Someone bought \~1000 puts in the morning and then someone bought another 1000 near market close... at two different strikes.
To be bullish, there are 25,000 contracts OTM right now. If this really breaks through $30 and the 30c gets hedged, that's \~450,000 shares that will need to be bought.
Position:
200 August 30C
**EDIT 11:00 AM EST**
Really low volume, and the IV is a bit stagnant within the options. Don't have a good read where this is going right now. It's trading incredibly thin, so if it catches some actual volume is going to pop. I would like to see the rate continue to tick up today. Looks to be trading a whole lot like yesterday right now. Sell off a bit from a hot open, melt up and then we'll see.
**EDIT 2:30 PM EST**
I think, for the most part, it's looking good, a bit of a low volume melt-up. The Aug 19P and 24P keep catching big volume, which is concerning. Other than that, nothing else is really standing out. Still holding the entire position, but I'm looking to close it out at some point. I don't have have a firm price target just yet.