CSL (ASX: CSL) — I ran my own valuation model on it, here's where the numbers actually land (not advice)
I've been tracking CSL (ASX: CSL) in my own model for a while, and since it's had such a wild year, 52-week range of roughly $90 to $275.79, I figured I'd share how I actually think about "what's it worth," rather than just reacting to the headline swings.
I run CSL through a handful of methods, but I only really trust three of them as decision inputs.
Everything else is just noise checking.
The three I actually anchor on:
\- My own equity method (10-year):\~$135.65/share. This is my own build, I roll EPS forward on a 10-year growth assumption and back into an implied share price with a few adjustments. It's the one I weight the most because it's mine end to end and I understand every input.
\- DCF / free cash flow method: \~$172.66/share. Built off CSL's reported free cash flow (\~$4.1B).
\- PE forward method: $182.34/share. Applies a fair/average multiple to forward EPS).
The one I don't act on: Benjamin Graham's formula spits out $76.02/share. I still run it every time, but honestly it's just a gut check,not a decision input. Graham's formula is intentionally brutal, it punishes any stock with a premium multiple, growth expectations, or ROIC well above cost of capital, which is basically CSL's entire profile. If I let Graham veto every quality compounder I looked at, I'd own almost nothing. I use it purely to keep myself honest about how far my other numbers have drifted from the most conservative possible read.
So how does that stack up against today's price?
Close on July 17 was $123.32
Against that:
\- PE forward ($182.34) says CSL says: 48% undervalued.
\- My equity method ($135.65) says: 10% undervalued.
\- The FCF/DCF method ($172.66) says: 40% undervalued.
\- Graham ($76.02) says the price is \~62% above what it thinks is "fair", which is exactly why I don't use it as anything more than a feel check.
That spread matters more than any single number. When my three core methods land in three different places, one screaming cheap, one saying roughly fair, one saying cheap, that's not a reason to get excited about the biggest number. It's a reason to lean on the most conservative one and treat the rest as upside optionality, not a floor.
Margin of safety, specifically:
\- FCF/DCF method: 1.4x soIf my DCF assumptions are even slightly optimistic, this method alone wouldn't clear my bar for a buy signal today.
\- Equity method (10y): \~1.10x, The margin only shows up once you extend the compounding runway to 10 years, which is a real assumption risk, not a guarantee.
\- PE forward: the fattest margin (\~1.48x), but it's also the most multiple dependent of the three it lives or dies on what "fair" PE you assume, so I discount it accordingly rather than taking it at face value.
Why I'm still willing to hold/build a position:
This is where the Company Potential side of my model matters more than any single price target. A few things that keep this on my radar rather than my "pass" pile:
\- CSL Behring (plasma) is 72% of revenue and it's the most efficient large scale operator in the industry on a per litre basis, that's a real, structural moat, not a story.
\- ROIC has compressed from a historical \~20%+ down toward an estimated \~11–14%, but that's still comfortably above my \~9% discount rate / cost-of-capital assumption, meaning the business is still creating value on incremental capital, just less of it than it used to.
\- Management has been substantially reset (new CEO/CFO/board) after the Vifor-related write-downs, and there's an active on-market buyback (up to A$750m through mid-2026) a real signal, not just talk.
\- My own read (probability-weighted) puts this closer to "temporary quality compression" than "structural decline" I land around a 65–70% chance of a reasonable recovery in returns on capital over the next several years vs a real but smaller chance to stay at the current low levels.
None of that is a promise. It's just the qualitative backdrop that makes me comfortable treating the equity/PE/DCF margin as a real option instead of noise.
Curious how others here are framing CSL right now especially anyone running their own DCF on it, since that's the method I trust least in terms of margin right now and would like more eyes on.
Not financial advice, just showing my work DYOR.