listen guys everyone has been sleeping on cmg lately and looking at the actual numbers right now in mid 2026 this stock is a screaming buy if you want at least 200 percent profit from where it sits today
lets look at the data from the filings like the q1 2026 report and the 2025 10-k total revenue for q1 2026 hit 3.1 billion dollars which is up 7.4 percent compared to last year and comparable restaurant sales ticked up 0.5 percent with transactions actually growing 0.6 percent annual revenue for 2025 was sitting around 11.93 billion with an annual net income of 1.54 billion and an annual ebitda of roughly 2.30 billion
now look at the valuation metrics with the stock trading near 31.80 or 32 dollars following their recent share structure changes the market cap is around 33 billion to 43 billion depending on the exact share count floats and debt adjustments enterprise value is calculated by taking that market cap adding total debt of about 5.08 billion and subtracting cash equivalents of around 246 million which lands total enterprise value right around 38 billion to 44 billion range
the trailing p/e ratio is hovering near 28 to 29 based on recent quarterly earnings per share like the q1 2026 adjusted eps of 0.24 and annual figures which is historically cheap for a compounding machine growing store counts by opening another 49 company owned locations in q1 alone with 42 of them featuring chipotlanes
running a basic discounted cash flow dcf model using their annual free cash flow generation of over 1.5 billion operating cash flows historically near 2.11 billion and assuming a modest long term growth rate of 8 to 10 percent over the next five years with a terminal growth rate of 3 percent and a discount rate of 9 percent the intrinsic value per share points straight to a fair value that is easily triple digits higher than today meaning it can perform at least 200 percent profit if invested now
sure it could theoretically drop more in the short term due to macro noise or slight margin pressures like labor costs hitting 26.1 percent in q1 from wage inflation but that dip would be totally temporary because their digital sales are still holding strong at 38.6 percent and underlying demand is solid load up while everyone else is ignoring the math