Thoughts on Leopold tapping investors which I believe suggests that we are getting closer to a bottom, with likely a meaningful rally to ensue after that.

 I don't think we are quite at the bottom yet and continue to hedge with actively traded short dated puts to offset declines in the equity positions, but but I think we are pretty close to a meaningful bottom across the Ai sector which I think will lead to a. violent rally higher, even if there is slightly more decline ahead in the immediate term.

The news with Leopold actually adds to my conviction in that.

For those who don't know, this is the news I am referring to:

https://preview.redd.it/phk41o130dgh1.png?width=732&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8b71fc9757f060394efe9cb327d69960513e964

Firstly, his YTD went from 200% to -30% over the past month. He leveraged up near the top and the momentum unwind fucked him up. Now those of us not in leverage are in a simpler position here where we can simply hold the positions with conviction that what we are holding is not total garbage, without having to worry about margin calls. Leopold was clearly worried about margin calls and is why he has tapped into investors telling them that this is a great time to invest.

Now, why that's important. Firstly, we saw the blow up of FTX marked a crypto bottom in Nov 2022. These kind of blow up events are typically signs of capitulation and bottoming. Secondly, we know that Leopold is close to margin calls. Logically then, Leopold would have needed to hedge aggressively with short dated puts. Similar to what I have been doing with QQQ, but he would have used puts against his own positions, like NBIS, SNDK etc.

This implicitly puts more pressure on the Ai stocks. Now when he goes to investors, I think he will be successful in raising the capital that he is looking for. His 4 year performance and the fact that there is no fundamental hit to the AI thesis right now, rather just de-leveraging, means that investors probably still have the confidence to avail his calls.

When Leopold has more capital, he will no longer be on the brink of Margin calls every day, which will give him more flexibility to remove some of his short dated puts. It will also give him the capital to be able to buy the dip. So I think that him receiving his capital will help to mark a bottom.

Now I do think we can still go a bit lower in momentum as the index isn't yet showing signs to me that it is categorically done, but SMH is now oversold. Typically seen strong bounces off of here. Can go bit more down, but bottom is surely quite close.

https://preview.redd.it/ybzc6iiszcgh1.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=a0e0ba9492f5f0bd33a5e98b337392aba164ecfa

Then we know the importance of 5k on KOSPi.

And we are close to that level too.

We have reports that the Korean Finance minister is working hard to ban short selling on the index. basically, Korea are doing whatever they can to prop up and defend that 5k level.

So that's another pivotal pivot point where we could see some bottoming. Again, it's hard to predict the exact bottom with de-leveraging events, but it seems more likely than not that we are close.