Dollar Smile Theory sounds weird at first, but it actually explains why the US dollar can go up in two totaly different situations

Dollar Smile Theory explains what at first looks like a strange feature of the US dollar USD can strengthen in two completely opposite market conditions.
The **first side i**s a global crisis. When panic begins, investors reduce risk, sell stocks, commodities, and emerging market currencies, moving capital into the US dollar and US government bonds. At the same time, demand for dollar funding increases because most global debt and international transactions are denominated in USD..
The **second side** is a strong US economy. When US economic data is stronger than in other countries, the market expects higher Federal Reserve interest rates and higher bond yields. Capital flows into dollar denominated assets, and the USD strengthens not because of fear, but because of the economic advantage of the United States.
The dollar is usually weakest in the middle of this model. This is the period when the global economy is doing well, there is no panic and the US has no clear advantage over other countries. Investors begin searching for higher returns outside the dollar, so capital moves into the euro, commodity currencies, and emerging markets.
That is why the idea that the crisis is over, so the dollar must fal dose not always work. If the US economy recovers faster than the rest of the world after a crisis, the USD may continue to rise, but for a completely different reason. When analyzing the dollar, it is important to understand not only whether it is strong or weak, but also which part of the cycle the market is in global panic, the calm middle US economic outperformance.