FUBO trades at $8.30-8.60 ncluding Disney’s 70% stake, the look-through enterprise value is about $1 billion against $6.2 billion in annual revenue, or 0.16x sales. The market values each subscriber at roughly $140, versus $250–$400 in comparable pay-TV deals.
Disney currently reimburses 95% of Hulu + Live TV programming costs, rising to 97.5% in 2027 and 99% from 2028. On an estimated $4.7 billion cost base, the annual shortfall falls from $235 million to $47 million, improving earnings by about $188 million without subscriber growth.
Quarterly net loss improved from $40.9 million to $6.2 million, while adjusted EBITDA reached $37.7 million. Full-year guidance is only $80–$100 million, despite roughly $79.1 million already generated in the first half. Only $20.9 million is needed to reach the top of the range. Either second-half costs rise sharply, or management has set an unusually low bar. A guidance raise or beat could be the main earnings catalyst.
New CEO Alisa Bowen previously ran Disney+ and helped scale Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+. Short interest is 24.8% of float, with 4.14 days to cover.
Position: 2,609 shares at $8.740. Not financial advice.
I invest strictly on a value basis and only buy companies I believe are fundamentally mispriced. Based on Fubo’s revenue, subscriber base and contracted margin improvement, I estimate fair value at roughly $15–$17 per share.