INTRO
My position: Long METC (2400 shares) / METCB (700 shares)
Ramaco (METC, METCB) is trying to build first rare earth element (REE) mining and processing operation to come online in the United States since the 1950s. This is a stock that shot up $57 per share in the REE craze last summer, before cratering back below $10 as of today. This gives the company a market cap of $600 million (interestingly last December Ramaco announced a buy-back program of $100 milion so theoretically Ramaco could retire close to 20% of its float). We are talking $600 million market cap vs $350 million short term liquidity. This stock is a **dog.**
Ramaco is claiming that it's REE facility, when fully operational, will result in an annual EBITDA of $775 million per year, on the low end. Ramaco claiming a viable path forward to generating annual REE profit greater than its current market cap means one of two things:
1. This is a ridiculously juicy investment opportunity
2. Ramaco is full of shit
The market is clearly voting for #2, this DD relates to the probability that #2 is indeed true.
ABOUT RAMACO
Ramaco's heretofore bread and butter business is the mining of metallurgical coal (met coal), an essential input into the production of forged steel. The U.S. Department of Energy designated it as a critical material in May 2025. Its ideal as a wartime play as war means huge demand for steel, but I digress.
Mining companies are generally garbage investments IMO and Ramaco is no exception, as it's beholden to international met coal benchmarks which fluctuate every time a miner farts and have been soft in recent quarters, contributing to Ramaco's negative EPS. The upshot of Ramaco's boring coal business is this:
\* Ramaco maintains an exceptionally clean balance sheet for a mining company, with consistently positive free cash flow even in negative EPS quarters
\* Ramaco's production cost-per-ton is squarely in the first quartile, implying Ramaco to be an efficient, operationally well-managed company
\* This means Ramaco has an unrelated-to-REE core-business serving as a bulwark for other ventures, such as REE, unlike the startups which are starting with hopes, dreams, debt, and zero revenue
ABOUT RAMACO'S REEs
Ramaco's REE play is based on its Brook Mine facility in Wyoming, a shuttered coal operation which the company purchased for a song 15 years ago. In 2018, U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) built models attempting to predict the location of REE deposits in the USA and identified the Brook Mine as being located squarely in a high potential area. This kickstarted a long process of Ramaco trying to figure out what exactly it had on its hands in Wyoming.
The market, and WSB, is, to put it mildly, jaded regarding the idea of a new USA mining operation in general and a new REE operation in particular. There is no shortage of keyboard warriors who will tell you new REE mines are impractical and the Ramaco play is doomed to failure. Three common arguments:
\* There is nothing actually *rare* about REEs, they are abundant in the earth's crust, the key is *economically viable concentrations* of which there are a limited number of locations on earth and only one currently active USA mine in California, operated by MP Materials
\* REEs are inherently difficult to mine, involving grinding massive quantities of hard rock for tiny fractions of REEs, which are replete with radioactive biproducts, further driving up the expense of mining/processing
\* Ramaco's REE concentrations at the Brook Mine are far below those of a conventional REE mine such as the MP Materials mine, therefore there is no economic path forward and Ramaco is full of shit to claim otherwise
As much as it may baffle you to consider the idea that the keyboard warriors are wrong, there are several advantages to Ramaco's play in particular that are being overlooked. There is a reason why Ramaco calls the unconventional deposits of rare earths. These advantages include:
\* Ramaco's REEs aren't deposited in hard rock, they are deposited in soft clays adjacent to coal seams
\* Ramaco's REE lack radioactive biproducts
These two factors mean, that while Ramaco's REE concentrations are low by conventional standards, they are far easier to mine and process
An additional factor:
\* The location of the Brook Mine is ideal: 3 miles away from a labor-providing urban center, located adjacent to an interstate highway, major railroad lines, and water sources. This is in stark contrast to MP Materials which is in an isolated area, no railroad lines and 60 miles from the nearest urban center
EVALUATING THE CLAIMS
\[Preliminary economic analysis by Fleur (July 2025)\]([https://ramacoresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Ramaco-Summary-Fluor-PEA-Jul-1.pdf](https://ramacoresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Ramaco-Summary-Fluor-PEA-Jul-1.pdf))
\[Pre-feasibility analysis by Hatch (July 2026)\]([https://ramacoresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Ramaco-Hatch-Report-07.29.26.pdf](https://ramacoresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Ramaco-Hatch-Report-07.29.26.pdf))
\[Ramaco's summary of Hatch analysis in letter to shareholders\]([https://ramacoresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Ramaco-Shareholder-Letter-07.29.26.pdf](https://ramacoresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Ramaco-Shareholder-Letter-07.29.26.pdf))
The Bear case is Ramaco is being wildly optimistic at best, at outright fraduent at worst. This is a heavily shorted stock and has been for years, there are plenty of powers-that-be that want to see this endeavor fail. \[They were accused of fraud\]([https://www.wolfpackresearch.com/items/metc%3A-pumping-and-dumping-nearly-worthless-dirt](https://www.wolfpackresearch.com/items/metc%3A-pumping-and-dumping-nearly-worthless-dirt)) by a "forensic research" short-selling outfit called Wolfpack Research. How many Ramaco shares did Wolfpack short?
I counter the bear case with the following:
\* Two major, internationally reputable engineering firms have endorsed the economic viability of the Brook Mine, why risk their reputations to help a few guys in Wyoming commit fraud?
\* Prominent officials have hitched their wagon to Ramaco: former senator Joe Manchin sits on the board of directors, the state of Wyming gave Ramaco a $6.1 million grant, and the following dignitaries attended the opening of the Brook Mine:
Chris Wright: U.S. Secretary of Energy
Mark Gordon: Governor of Wyoming
John Barrasso: U.S. Senator for Wyoming
Cynthia Lummis: U.S. Senator for Wyoming
Harriet Hageman: U.S. Representative for Wyoming
What I am not arguing is that politicians are above shady shit. However, would so many prominent officials cheerlead for outright fraud?
\* The USA - with massive grants, subsidies and purchase agreements, is committed to developing an REE industry in the United States with urgency and at any cost. Also, if you are trying to expedite the permitting for an REE mine, a deep red state is a good place to do it
\* Finally, Ramaco claims that thousands of core sample drilled from the site have been processed in third-party laboratories which have verified the projected REE yields. This is either strong evidence in favor of the project, or Ramaco is outright lying and orchestrating one of the great investment frauds of living memory
CONCLUSION
This is a long term play. Full-scale operations will not be online until 2031. If you think Ramaco is full of shit, then the company is currently priced as a mediocre mining company already. If this play pans out, which a growing pile of evidence suggests it will, this stock will blow past $100 per share and the degenerates who invested early will be fat and happy.