As before, lots of good DD's on various subreddits, you should absolutely read through them before deciding anything.
Yesterday after lunch, the buying pressure really just vanished. There was also a lot of short volume to close out the day but it was eaten up pretty quickly. The IV on the Aug 30C is hanging in there pretty well. It looked less bullish EOD yesterday and going into today, I'd proceed with caution - the borrow rate also dropped. The bid/ask spread is still blown up, but that works in both directions. I'm still expecting a 5-10% drop at some point in the next week or so.
I'm watching the delta on the 30C today, it's at \~.48 right now with 6850 underlying contracts. If that drops to .25, that will provide \~150,000 shares of liquidity as well.
I'll keep this main post update with any observations. I'm still going to try and exit the 35C at some point in the near future.
Postions:
200 August 30C
45 August 35C
**10:15 EST -** looking much better now, actually have some sell walls coming up and good buying pressure. The bid/ask spread is still pretty blown-up, probably in the \~$.30 range for most of the day so far. Volume is still very low as well. This one is still a bit of a mystery.
**11:00 EST** \- volatility has picked up, the bid/ask spread has compressed quite a bit. Anecdotally... 60-70% of transactions at either the bid or ask have been at the bid. Don't have a real good read on how it plays out, but right now the sales are getting eaten up pretty quickly. The buying pressure has dried up a bit, but volume has picked up just a bit.
**11:45 EST** \- Just absolutely zero buying pressure right now, someone is just walking down the price, you can see the ask just keeps walking down. Probably will close in the $26 range today unless buying pressure comes back to life.
**12:35 EST** \- Not entirely surprised, the buying pressure just evaporated and I'm guessing \~100k shares were sold short as well from \~11:00 to 12:30, hard to tell exactly but IBKR is showing around that amount. Still looks pretty weak in terms of buying pressure, I think we probably close in the $26.50 ish range, maybe get back over $27. Didn't close anything, was trying to get the 35C closed, didn't get a good price, so still have those open.
**1:00 EST** \- Looking a bit better, but still not great. The selling pressure has subsided, doesn't seem like every other transaction is at the ask. The buying pressure is still pretty weak. Still think we are in the $26.50-$27.00 range for close, but still a lot of time left... to go either direction. Just not a whole lot of buying today.
**2:25 EST** \- Still very little buying pressure / volume. I think the short volume today is going to be over 60%. I'm also not seeing much of anything in the option volume, which is a bit odd I would have expected some of those OTM options to close out. Well, I'm stuck in this position at least for a few more days, still have 4 weeks until expiration.
I'm also pretty confused about the absolute lack of PM and AH volume. All things considered, if this closes \~6% down, it could have been a lot worse.