Allow stock prices to speak for themselves. Your job is to make money, not to be right

You should treat the saying "It's priced in" as always true, because it is always true.

The price of a stock on the stock market is set by what market forces have decided is the equilibrium. The confusion comes when people think stocks have any value or meaning beyond what the market prices it at. The stock is not the company, and it does not communicate information **about that company** on a constantly updating real-time basis. Think of it more like a mascot of a company which fluctuates in supply and demand. Stock prices are information that communicates the real-time supply and demand **of that mascot**.

The price of a stock at a certain time is the price. The price, before it has moved, is not a coiled spring full of potential energy nor is it perched on a cliff waiting to fall. Both of those situations are entirely possible, but entirely unknowable until the market decides to disagree on the price and price in a different price instead. The price at a certain time is exactly priced in for that point in time; that's what a price **is**.

Some point at cascading domino events like liquidity squeezes, short squeezes, leverage unwinds, etc. and say things like: "But this company's really strong/weak. The stock had no reason to do what it did." You might be entirely right in your assessment of the company. But the stock is not the company. The market is in fact pricing in the company's shares perfectly on a moment to moment basis, because that is all a market **can** do - price things in.

Remembering this will help you keep in mind that the only reason to buy a stock is to make money by selling it for a profit. You can be entirely right that Tesla **the company** or SpaceX **the company** is an overrated dumpster fire, for example. But that doesn't mean it's safe to short sell or buy puts on Tesla **the stock** or SpaceX **the stock**. You can be right that Microsoft **the company** or Servicenow **the company** is performing stronger than their stock prices suggest. But that says nothing about the trajectory of buying Microsoft **the stock** or Servicenow **the stock**. Preserve capital & make money over being right about your judgement on a company.