So, I’ll keep my points short since I’m on my phone. 2000 to 2003 spy declined. Stuff like glw went from 10 dollars to 100 dollars… back to 10 dollars. During this time, safe stocks did ok but eventually declined over the long term.
Now, here’s my issues - private credit failing, withdrawal being capped. Interest rate already got hiked in Korea. If there is inflation, no one will buy bonds, meaning that stocks will come down as bond yields go up. Money from ai is coming from… where? Government and other businesses. So that money tap will either get turned off or other stocks will collapse to fund the ai companies.
Lastly, pretty much all the stocks like aluminum steel electricity manufacturing etc people are betting on getting a pump from this ai spending. Oh and Walmart is at 40 pe because reasons. So if spy sells off because it’s literally full of 150 pe garbage what happens? Is there anything worth holding? I believe mag 7 will get fucked along with software.
Also oil supply runs out in 45 days which no one seems to have an answer to?