Once again, there have been some really good DD's out there on this, I suggest you use the search bar and track them down. The tldr; is it is \~70% short float with an active \~$200M share buyback. The August option expiration has \~15,000 contracts OTM, the borrow fee is going up and Friday was the first day in a week or so where the short float actually increased again. The bid/ask spread has been hanging around the \~$.15 range and it is trading super thin.
Positions:
200 Aug 30C
45 Aug 35C
I will probably close the 35C if we get a price spike, I want some more oil exposure. But I've had this up for \~a week now (level 2 in the background) and this is absolutely going to pop. I don't get into specific price levels or timing predictions. But I have 'qualitative' checklist I use -
* is the borrow fee increasing? yes
* is the volume 'low-ish'? yes
* is there a reasonable dilution possiblity? it's always there, but would be odd during a buyback
* are there 5-10 threads on shortsqueeze pumping it up? no
* bullish option activity? yes
Obviously, this doesn't guarantee anything, but something that has worked well for me over the years. Right now, this just feels like low volume consolidation but there just really hasn't been much downwards pressure at all since last Monday.
**Edit: 12:55 EST - There is just zero downwards pressure right now, the dips keep getting bought up and anytime it drops is due to a lack up buying pressure. Really really bullish looking today.**