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ADBE with math

M
Jun 12, 2026 · 12:41

\~400 million shares outstanding. $25b buyback program through 2030.

Scenario A: With the (current 201) premarket price: $25b / $201 - 119 million shares. 30% of the float.

but assuming 201 is silly.

Scenario B: Assume average cost for buybacks rises to $300.

$25b / $300 = \~83 million shares. 21% of the float.

Assume current net income $9.7b grows 8% per year (they reported 13% yesterday during earnings). That's $13b by 2030.

In Scenario A, $13b / \~280 million shares (remaining) = $47 EPS.
In Scenario B, $13b / \~315 million shares (remaining) = $42 EPS

10 PE in Scenario A is $470 per share. 15 PE is $700.

10 PE in Scenario B is $420 per share. 15 PE is $630.

IDKWTF is going on. What am I missing here?