Iran says Hormuz is closed. The US just reinstated the blockade. How is the market supposed to price this?

https://preview.redd.it/cu46cxfa0deh1.jpg?width=1004&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=21f9ed9c278db1fa8262bd1fe26737912d4e7221

I've been watching Hormuz closely because it feels like one of the most underpriced tail risks in the second half of this year. Wanted to put my read out there and see what others are thinking.

On the statements themselves: I've stopped paying attention to them. A few days ago the US was saying the waterway was open. Now they've reinstated the naval blockade and Trump is talking about becoming the "guardian of the strait." Iran says it's closed and is threatening to extend the closure to the Bab el-Mandeb as well. Both sides have flipped their narratives multiple times.

The AIS/Kpler tracking data tells a brutal story. Normal transit baseline is 130–140 vessels/day. Following the breakdown of the June MoU last week, transit volume has plummeted to just 14 vessels per day as of July 12th. We aren't looking at a "partial disruption" anymore. We are seeing a logistical collapse of the world's most critical energy artery. BZ main just spiked above $90 this morning. Even so, it is still nowhere near the $126 highs we saw in April when the conflict first peaked.

The question I can't resolve: If oil is forced to catch up to the reality of a sustained blockade, how does the market reconcile it? Are we looking at an energy earnings tailwind, or does the resulting inflation/rate-hike panic finally nuke the growth story? The positioning for those two outcomes is diametrically opposed. How are you all adjusting your books?