MSFT is done for now. I don’t see it getting back above $450 anytime soon.

**TL;DR:** Microsoft isn’t undervalued at $380–400. Unless it delivers exceptionally strong results over the next two quarters which I don’t expect, it faces growing challenges that increase the downside risk.

Last Friday was the last chance to escape this ass stock

The bullish counterargument is that Microsoft isn’t being valued like a normal software company anymore.

•A dominant cloud provider.
•A major AI infrastructure owner.
•A beneficiary of enterprise AI adoption

Ok, these are true, for now…
But these things are all already priced in.
Also, the bears are much more blood thirsty than ever , If any of the following happen, MSFT could easily trade lower:

•Azure posted decent results, but even a slight slowdown in growth would be concerning, let alone losing market share to competitors.

• Anthropic IPO becomes the hottest AI trade on the market and sucks capital away from MSFT, much like SpaceX has drawn money away from other aerospace plays.

The risks appear greater than the rewards right now.

Times have changed, and it’s no longer impossible for $430 to become the ceiling rather than the floor.

Unless their new quantum chip turns out to be some Willy Wonka–level magic and somehow gives birth to a quantum AI god which it won’t….