Has anyone found a real directional edge using open interest and options volume?
I’m trying to figure out whether open interest and options volume can be used in a genuinely repeatable way to forecast short-term stock direction.
My working assumption is that there should be some signal in the options market beyond simple sentiment narratives. For example:
• put/call OI imbalance
• day-over-day change in OI
• abnormal options volume
• volume-to-OI ratios
• strike concentration around ATM vs OTM
• positioning by expiry, especially near-dated contracts
What I’m looking for is not a discretionary “read the chain” approach, but something more systematic:
• a formula
• a factor
• a scoring model
• or a tested setup that produces a directional bias with at least some robustness
Has anyone here tested this seriously and found a framework that actually adds predictive value?
Thx