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REDDIT

The Mid-term election effect

F
Jul 19, 2026 · 17:15

The stock market typically sees a large retracement in the months leading up to the mid-term election, usually bottoming in mid to late October. If you look at the chart of the S&P 500, May through July 17 looks almost exactly like the setup in October-December of 2025 before we had the correction at the beginning of 2026.

Personally, I'm going very heavy into cash and awaiting the dip.

Regarding MSFT, I'm now thinking it will bottom at about 338 (long-term base of support) around the second week of October.

Thoughts?