Is the stock market underestimating the conflict in the Middle East? Last night's attacks on energy and water plants are highly concerning
There has been significant escalation in the war between the US and Iran over the past few days. The POTUS has been threatening to hit Iranian bridges and power plants over the past week. Last night, Iran decided to beat the US to the punch and attacked oil and water infrastructure in neighboring states. 2 of Kuwait's 8 desalination plants were damaged.
Complete destruction of desalination plants in the middle east would be an absolute catastrophe. There would be a humanitarian crisis, middle eastern economies would collapse, and oil would rise to unprecedented levels and cripple the global economy. The stock market would likely crash.
With markets being only a few % off all time highs, stocks clearly haven't priced in this doomsday scenario being the base case. But with Iran now preemptively targeting energy and water plants, is there a larger chance that the POTUS follows through on his threats to hit Iranian power plants? If so, I have to imagine Iran then doubles down on desalination plant attacks. This crisis would quickly spiral out of control.
I just hope frail egos aren't the reason for a global catastrophe.