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AMC will be beat earnings expectations on Monday

V
Jul 18, 2026 · 14:38

The consensus EPS loss of a penny completely is wrong. The record-breaking $2.97 billion domestic box office created a high-margin concession wave that structurally overpowered the company's fixed costs. This line-by-line breakdown shows exactly how the cash flows this quarter when you properly factor in the latest dilution and interest savings.

On the revenue side, AMC captures roughly 22% of the domestic box office. Combined with international markets, admissions revenue lands right at $780 million. The real engine is concessions, which add $530 million driven by an average patron spend over $8.00. Screen advertising and retail merchandise pull in another $170 million, bringing total revenue to a massive $1.48 billion.

To find the cash flow, we subtract the core operating expenses. Studios take a heavy cut of the blockbuster tickets, costing AMC $390 million in film exhibition fees. The actual cost of the concession food sold is incredibly low at $95 million. Theater operations, corporate payroll, and utilities require $560 million, while standard leases and deferred pandemic rent take another $225 million. Subtracting these operational costs leaves AMC with an Adjusted EBITDA of $210 million in pure cash flow.

To translate this cash into net profit, we first subtract $75 million in non-cash depreciation, leaving an operating income of $135 million. This is where the debt restructuring saves the quarter. AMC's baseline interest expense last quarter was $121.4 million. The April refinancing saved $2.25 million, and converting $155.8 million of notes to equity saved another $3.89 million. Because the June 25th dilution only applied to the final 5 days of the 91-day quarter, its immediate interest impact is negligible, dropping total Q2 interest expense to $115.2 million.

Subtracting that $115.2 million interest bill from the $135 million operating income leaves $19.8 million in pure net income. The June 25th equity raise added 103 million shares to the float, but because they were active for only 5 days, their weighted average impact adds just 5.65 million shares to this specific report. Dividing the $19.8 million profit by the newly weighted share count of 750.65 million results in a positive $0.026 per share, which officially rounds to a positive $0.03 Earnings Per Share.

AMC front-loaded this earnings date to July 20th, roughly 3 weeks earlier than their standard early August reporting window. Following their June capital raise, management entered a mandatory 45-day lock-up agreement that legally bars them from issuing new equity until August 9th. By dropping this massive $210 million EBITDA beat right now, management has engineered a completely clear 3-week runway where the stock can run on strong fundamentals and potential short covering without any immediate threat of overnight dilution capping the rally. This lets the price establish a higher floor so that when the lock-up expires in August, any future equity raise requires printing far fewer shares to generate cash.