Posts  / GOOGL  / #POST-240807
REDDIT

GOOGL earnings 7/22 the GAAP number is going to look insane

A
Jul 18, 2026 · 10:55

The GAAP EPS estimate is $2.89. Google is going to report something closer to $7 (maybe $5-7 because I trusted Gemini math, and yes I recognize the irony).

Google owns \~5-6% of SpaceX. SpaceX IPO'd June 12, and on June 30 SPCX closed at $170.86, valuing it \~$2.25T. Google's Chunk was \~$113B at quarter end, up from \~$40B last quarter. That \~$70B jump runs through the income statement as a gain. After tax and share count it could be up to and additional $4.50 to EPS on top of the $2.89 GAAP estimates being reported. That's IF Google actually fully reported it in Q1 and historically they have downplayed these bets while they could. Now that it's a tangible asset they are legally required to report it at face value end of Q2.

Analysts don't put it in the estimate. It's a below-the-line mark tied for their closing price on one day, so nobody forecasts it. But the thing is, there's now a real asset that can be sold or borroewed against on the not so distant horizon. Pre-IPO it was a locked private stake. Now it's liquid, and the lockup lapses in December. For a stock whose bear case is capex eating free cash flow, that's a real asset.

Idk about you but when news outlets start reporting on up to a 142% earnings beat (GAAP or not, headlines don't care), people will pay attention.

My play remains firmly bullish. I rolled mostly into Aug 21 [as I said I planned to in my previous post.](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1uey3dp/googl_dd_and_amateur_analysis/) I still aim for a target range of $380+ though that's been unfortunately pulled down a bit by the model delay news (which I hope is cleanly resolved with a real timeline at earnings).

Positions attached (it was a bloody day and I would be lying if I said those 4 calls with the 7/24 expiration weren't completely forgottten).

Not financial advice.