What are your highest conviction ideas to diversify away from the "AI complex" right now?
I'm having a harder and harder time believing the returns on capital generated in the AI space will be as attractive as the capex figures continue to skyrocket, even for the biggest players. I'm still fairly concentrated into the big 4 hyperscalers (overweight by comparison to the major indices), because their collection of businesses are some of the greatest in the history of capitalism.
But it's tough to feel confident that the unit economics will continue to look as good as they once did (besides possibly Amazon, starting from an already capital intensive base). Although I don't plan on majorly shifting around my portfolio, I think now is a pretty good time to start to diversify, with how increasingly delicate the "AI complex" is looking (supply chain complexity, circular financing, huge frontier labs with questionable finances, etc).
I have some bets in software (CSU, NOW, ADBE, DSGX), ecommerce (MELI, SE), payments/Fintech (MA, ADYEY, RELY), and a few network effect based "internet economy" stocks (UBER, BKNG, RDDT). I like that these either benefit from AI being less disruptive than previously assumed, or just agnostic to it.
What are some other reasonably priced businesses you like that aren't as dependent on the boom or bust of the AI?