One thing I’ve learned the hard way is that the first move after a macro event is often less informative than people think.
Not because the event doesn’t matter. Because the reaction gets distorted by how the market was leaning into it.
What I want to know before the event:
* where positioning looks crowded
* whether implied vol already assumes a large move
* which asset is most likely to become the expression vehicle
* whether rates / FX / equities are all set up for the same directional surprise
If I don’t have that context, I’m basically guessing whether the first move is information, flow, or a squeeze.
That’s why I like thinking in scenarios instead of predictions:
**If outcome comes in hotter than expected:**
Which asset actually has room to extend?
**If outcome is cooler than expected:**
Where is the most painful unwind?
**If outcome is mixed:**
Which first move is most likely to reverse?
I’m curious how people here structure pre-event options prep. What matters most to you: IV, dealer positioning, rates reaction, or something else?