Hot CPI + oil up 8% today ，，，is this the week to be selling vol or buying it?

Last week ended with a genuinely important data point — CPI at 3.3%, monthly gain 0.9%, both above expectations.

This week opened with oil up 8% to $104. Gold sold off. Dollar strengthened.

The ceasefire two-week window expires around April 22. Islamabad talks are ongoing. The outcome of those talks is genuinely binary for oil prices ，deal means oil falls back toward $80-85, no deal means we could be looking at another leg higher.

For options traders, that binary setup is interesting. IV on crude and gold has been elevated throughout the conflict but has been compressing since the ceasefire. If the Islamabad talks break down before April 22, you'd expect a sharp vol spike. If talks progress well, vol continues to compress.

The question I'm sitting with: is IV cheap enough right now to justify buying tail risk protection ahead of the ceasefire deadline, or has the market already priced enough uncertainty into the term structure?

What's your read on current vol levels? And is anyone specifically positioning around the April 22 ceasefire expiry?