SpaceX: down 41% off its peak. I still don't think it's cheap — here's the math.

A month ago I argued SpaceX was probably a wonderful business but nowhere near a fair price. Since the post-IPO peak of $225.64 on 16 June the stock has plummeted, briefly slipping below its $135 IPO price. The obvious question for this sub: after such a quick fall, does it make the stock cheap?

The problem is the price relative to what the business earns. At roughly $1.8 trillion, on a conventional 20x, SpaceX would need something like $90 billion of annual net income to justify the valuation — roughly what Apple earns. It instead made $4.69B in revenue against a $4.28B loss for Q1 2026.

The strongest bull case is the Amazon comparison, and it deserves a fair hearing: when a company is investing heavily, accounting charges that spending against today's profit — so its reported earnings understate how much value it's actually building. But Amazon funded its build out of AWS — a cash machine hidden under the capex. If you remove SpaceX's growth spending, there's no cash cow. That's the whole difference between reinvesting your profits and spending other people's money.

The tell I find most interesting: the sell-side has started arguing SpaceX should buy Tesla. Keep watching this one.

My verdict: wonderful business, still not a fair price. Going against a Musk monopoly has its risks for investors.

Where does this sub land — is there an earnings path that justifies \~$1.8T, or is this a story stock value tools just can't price?

Article attached, please enjoy the read and have a good weekend.