I think the regime is changing from chop to a strong move up, peace is likely, and so I expect calls to perform well, interestingly VOL has started to creep up so it is likely people are hedging on this large move. VIX and UVXY are not fully correlated to the SPY rn.
Gold and silver exhibited similar behaviour, they behaved like growth equities, a lot of things do not make sense right now from a technical and quant perspective. there will likely be a lot of movement in the market, so great for options traders.
The regime filliped on Apr 6th with a strong buy signal, I expect this breakout to accelerate, If you look at the Kama lines the slope is ramping up, meaning that large buyers are starting to push the market up, accumulation is strong, this is a large move with buyers behind it.
On the lower level charts, the candles are hovering above the top Kama lines, watch for a move down through them, this would indicate a reversal of the strong breakout. No idea how long this will go on for but happy trading.
* Position Ideas:
* Any long spy calls, 30-45 delta, OTM on a strong move has cheap premium and the gamma change at certain points will be very profitable.
* Spreads, if you want a cheaper net premium and more stable theta value, these are a good option. If you are a premium seller, and get a credit, you can wait for the short leg to get devalued on a adverse move, and when you see a reversal sell the short leg and ride a long position, this is a mean reverting trade I often do, it is hard to execute, and carries risk, but if you can double dip, great, go for it
* UPRO or levered products, more stable than options, less upside, but if you are busy and can't monitor trades, this is a great option
* TLDR, use stops, don't move them unless you need to, or use a dynamic stop, set them as tightly as your risk parmeters are, but once you catch a move, let it run for a bit.
* I am not posting support levels because this is dynamic, I have no idea what the SPY will do a week from now, I use this to make probalistic bets, sometimes I am wrong, i do not trade with all my capital, set risk limits, use them, and do not chase trades when you are losing.
* Finally, I appreciate you guys for reading my weird posts, I am a strange guy, I feel a sense of community here, thank you for taking the time to read this, and for folks who have commented in the past, I appreciate you.
These chart's are mine, and use some open source tools, I use them to trade. Here is the view, enjoy. This is open source so enjoy:
[https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PNVS2Itc/](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PNVS2Itc/)
Happy Thursday
