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REDDIT

Is anyone else uneasy about how circular the AI capex numbers are getting?

I
Jul 16, 2026 · 12:20

One pattern in the AI headlines keeps bugging me.

Nvidia put money into IREN. IREN buys Nvidia GPUs. Nvidia took a stake in CoreWeave. CoreWeave is a big Nvidia buyer. Nvidia bought into Intel. Almost every week there's another "Nvidia invests in XYZ" story, and a lot of those companies are also its customers.

Individually each one reads as demand. Stacked up, some of it looks like Nvidia's own capital doing a lap: fund the customer, the customer buys your chips, the sale books as demand. And the spending is increasingly debt-funded, roughly a quarter-trillion in AI bonds this year (Amazon alone raised $25B+).

Obviously a lot of this is real demand. But how much of the "insatiable demand" story is real customers vs vendor financing dressed up as growth?

Red flag, or just how every capital-intensive boom (rail, telecom, fibre) got financed early on?