At the time, the thesis was pretty straightforward for me. I was looking for exposure to the memory cycle turning, especially with DRAM and HBM pricing dynamics starting to stabilize and demand signals from AI related infrastructure beginning to pick up. MU stood out because it wasn’t just a AI hype name. It was a direct beneficiary of something more structural. Memory becoming a bottleneck again after a long downcycle.
What really pushed me to size in was a combination of things.
We were clearly coming out of a supply glut phase and the industry discipline on capex looked materially better than prior cycles. HBM and high end DRAM demand tied to AI workloads was starting to shift the narrative from commodity memory to a more strategic component. Valuation at the time still reflected a lot of skepticism around how sustainable the recovery would be. And MU specifically had been lagging relative to some of the semis which to me was interesting rather than discouraging.
So I started building a position gradually instead of going all in upfront. I didn’t try to time the exact bottom. Just focused on whether the cycle logic made sense and whether the risk reward was asymmetrically skewed.
Fast forward to today, I’m sitting on about 5800 shares with an average cost around 607 dollars. My unrealized P and L is roughly plus 3.4 million, and MU now represents about 88 percent of my portfolio.
It’s been a strong move obviously, but I think what stands out to me more is how much of it still feels fundamentally driven rather than purely multiple expansion. The memory cycle is never a straight line and I’ve definitely had moments of doubt along the way, especially during the sharper pullbacks.
At this point I’m not rushing to do anything dramatic. I’m still watching how demand for HBM and broader AI infrastructure evolves into year end, and whether supply discipline actually holds if pricing stays strong.
Just sharing because I know a lot of people are either in this name or watching it closely. Curious how others are thinking about the cycle from here.
