Genuinely what on earth is going on with software right now? This is completely unhinged.
What we are witnessing over the past two and a half weeks is some of the craziest, most irrational market behavior I’ve ever seen in my life.
The IGV software index looked like it was starting a clean comeback in mid-June, bringing names up significantly. Which made sense because close to zero major software companies are actually seeing negative headwinds from AI. If anything, many are actively enhancing their business models by implementing it.
But this market has completely decoupled from reality. You have highly profitable software businesses with massive free cash flow, zero debt, and growing net income literally collapsing right in front of our eyes.
Look at what has happened in the span of less than three weeks:
• ServiceNow ($NOW): Down nearly 30-40%
• Salesforce ($CRM): Down 30% (down 12 straight days in a row without a single green day)
• Adobe ($ADBE): Down 30%
• Microsoft ($MSFT): A literal Mag 7 pillar down 20%, trading like a volatile meme coin.
How is this even possible with zero catastrophic news, zero fundamental changes, and zero structural catalysts? The majority of these names are delivering solid, above-expected earnings, yet 4 to 10 years of painstaking structural gains are getting wiped out in under a month. This isn't even an exaggeration. It feels like we have officially reached the point where fundamentals mean absolutely nothing. It is entirely driven by hype, momentum, and whatever fake narrative the market decides to chase.
The complete disconnect is proven perfectly by things like SpaceX, where a tiny float gets pumped 75% for no logical reason while real businesses with real cash flows get absolutely slaughtered. The broader market is sitting near all-time highs while software is in a literal freefall, bleeding red for three straight weeks.
I honestly feel sick to my stomach looking at this. My mindset is long-term, and I can handle normal downside, but a 30% to 40% capitulation on enterprise-grade tech in half a month isn't a normal correction. This is dotcom or 2020 COVID-level panic movements, but isolated to a single sector for no reason.
I’m completely in shock and honestly terrified to check the aggregate losses across my accounts. I don't even have any dry powder left to buy this dip.
What are you guys even doing at this point? Is anyone else just holding through this absolute bloodbath, or has the market completely lost its mind?