Short Tech (IYW) Model Update - Going to Start Tracking - Getting Ready for Tech Pullback

I made some updates to the Short Technology Model I was working on. I removed a few overweight features (Sector 200-day MA) and added a few more individual features, (Stock SMA 200).

New Model:
Universe: Technology
Target Days: 10
Target Return: -5%+
Features: 30
Training Period: 1-1-1997 – 1-1-2003 (5 years)

Backtest Period #1: 2021–2022 (image 1)
Backtest Period #2: 2018–2019 (image 2)
Backtest Metrics :
Max Position : 20
Confidence Interval : 55%
Stop-Loss : 5%
Entry : Open

Backtest Results : See Images

The 2021 pullback included the final 25% rally as well as the full pullback to down 10% from the start of the backtest.

The 2018 backtest included the final 12% rally, the bear-market drawdown, and the rally back to break-even from the beginning of the backtest period.

The 2021 period was on a completely different level from a valuation standpoint compared to 2018, and the current environment is also trading at a higher valuation level than 2018.

The goal here is for IYW to rally further from here. I’d like to see it nearer $250- $260, and at that point I think I’ll be in a good position to start using this model as a hedge. Tracking it every day for now and see how it's doing.

Image 3 is the picks for today (did not trade them )

Will probably build another one trained on different time periods and compare or combine.