3 years swing trading, mostly mid-cap stocks. account has been grinding sideways even though my win rate is 52% which should be plenty for swing.
finally did a real audit on hold times and exits last weekend. it kind of broke my brain:
avg hold time on winners: 6.2 days
avg hold time on losers: 14.1 days
avg R on wins: +1.1R
avg R on losses: -1.9R
i've been holding my losers more than 2x as long as my winners. and letting them run almost 2x deeper than my plan said. on winners i was clicking sell the moment price hit my first target out of "let me just lock in the profit" fear. on losers i was telling myself "swing trades need patience, give it time" right up until it stopped me out at -2R.
the screenshot is from a journal i've been testing for a few months. it flagged the asymmetry automatically and showed me the trade-by-trade breakdown. i'd been keeping a spreadsheet for 3 years and never once put hold time against R like that myself.
what i'm doing now:
hard rule. my losers get the same average hold time as my winners. if i wouldn't hold a winner past day 7 i don't get to hold a loser past day 7. and i write my exit target IN ADVANCE for winners and don't move it until the trade closes.
4 weeks in, average R on wins went from 1.1 to 1.6. feels like the difference between an account that compounds and one that just stays alive.
anyone else find a hold-time asymmetry when they actually measured it? curious if it's universal or i was just weirdly broken