Robinhood ($HOOD) Earnings Trade Vol Crush Setup - Tough Decision to Make!

Here's my set up:

ATM Straddle Cost $7.65
HOOD Breakeven Low @ Expiration $76.35 -9.1%
HOOD Current Price $84
HOOD Breakeven High @ Expiration $91.65 +9.1%

Implied Vol 128%

Expected Vol Full Crush (vol points) 61.9

Delta $-1.48
Gamma $8.41
Vega $5.95
Theta $126.20

Post earnings expected range +/-15.8%.

Full vol crush = -4.4% of stock price.

Crush adjusted move +/-11.5%.

**Implied move +/- 9.1% so options are cheap!**

However, only 36% of last 11 EA opening gap exceeded implied move. When the stock moves, it moves. But when it doesn't it doesn't.

**So tough decision to make on this one.**

If full Crush occurs, expect to lose $3.70, or nearly 50% of the straddle price, so we'd need a big move to pay for it.

**Conclusion: When in doubt - sit it out! There will be many more, more favorable set-ups before the earnings season is over.**

https://preview.redd.it/2a5thpvffzxg1.png?width=1346&format=png&auto=webp&s=30e492958324e3a33df6a810d2c15207624b1e90