SOFI possible short/gamma squeeze setup for tomorrow? Looking for opinions.
I’m looking at SOFI for a possible short squeeze / gamma squeeze setup into tomorrow and Friday expiration. Not saying this is guaranteed, just laying out what I see.
Current setup:
* SOFI is trading around $15.40
* Today’s range was roughly $15.23 low to $16.09 high
* So it already touched the $16 area today, then faded
* Volume today was around 47M+ shares
* The key resistance area looks like $16.00 to $16.10
* If it clears that area, the next focus zones for me are $16.50, $17.00, then $18+
Short interest / squeeze factors:
* Reported short interest is around 160.95M shares
* Short percent of float is around 12.7% to 13%
* Days to cover is around 2.2 to 2.4
* That is not insane GME-level short interest, but it is elevated enough to add fuel if price starts moving hard
* SOFI is liquid, so this would probably be more of a gamma squeeze / momentum squeeze than a classic low-float short squeeze
Options / gamma setup:
* SOFI options open interest is very call-heavy
* OptionCharts shows total SOFI options open interest around 771K contracts
* Put/call open interest ratio is around 0.40, meaning calls are heavily represented
* OptionCharts expected move for May 15 expiration is about ±$0.67, with an expected range around $15.61 to $16.95
* That means $16.00, $16.50, and even the high $16s are inside the expected move
Near-term catalysts tomorrow:
Major macro reports drop tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET:
* U.S. Retail Sales
* Retail Sales minus Autos
* Initial Jobless Claims
* Import / Export Prices
Consensus I’m seeing:
* Retail Sales expected around +0.5%
* Retail Sales ex-autos expected around +0.8%
* Initial Jobless Claims expected around 205K
My read is that SOFI probably benefits most from a “Goldilocks” macro print: consumer still healthy, but not so hot that yields spike and growth/fintech gets hit.
Possible trigger levels:
* Above $16.10: reclaim of today’s high, bullish signal
* Above $16.50: more calls start waking up, potential gamma pressure
* Above $17.00: momentum traders may pile in
* Above $18.00: shorts may feel more pressure
* Below $15.20: thesis weakens because today’s low breaks
Question:
Do you guys see this as a legit short/gamma squeeze candidate, or just normal SOFI chop inside its range?
EDIT: Not a squeeze but I cashed out at 0.14 on these so I'll take the +600$