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REDDIT

Counter intuitive LEAPS backtest results

M
May 17, 2026 · 18:46

Almost every articles I have read suggests roughly same thing for LEAPS.

\- Take profit when options or underlying grows above certain % , say 50% or 100%
\- Roll up and out when DTE < 150-180 days
\- Roll down when DTE goes below certain threshold.

I have done multiple backtests and the first one which seems the most straightforward has given counter intuitive results. Taking profit and then rolling performed worse in all combinations. I have simulated with over 100 combinations. Consulting chatGPT and Claude confirmed this behaviour.

This is specifically for mega cap, solid tickers. Not sure about swing trades. I am talking specifically as a long term stock replacement. So why does every article suggest this approach.