Currently, oil (light crude futures) is $95/barrel. Depending on which way it goes from here, we can know if the next news cycle will be talking about how close a peace deal is, or if we're threatening to blow up a whole region again.
You see, when oil goes under $90, we get the warhawk bluster. But when it is above $100, we get the talk about how great a peace deal is near.
Thanks to oil, we have a pretty good idea of what the news will be.