day 235 since the btc ath. previous cycles bottomed around day 364-376. are we closer to the bottom than it feels?

btc under 70k. rsi at 30. fear & greed at 29.

$545M in liquidations today alone.

i've been tracking this sell-off for weeks.

for me, today feels different, not because i think the bottom is in, but because the data is showing classic capitulation signals.

rsi at 30.8 - technically oversold.

fear & greed at 29 - extreme fear territory.

liquidations cascading for days.

btc dominance falling - even btc holders selling.

historically these combinations have marked local bottoms. not always. but often.

what make me think about timing:

btc ath was october 10, 2025.

today is day 235 since that peak.

previous cycles:

2021 ath → 2022 bottom: \~376 days

2017 ath → 2018 bottom: \~364 days

we're not there yet historically.

but we're getting closer.

but: do the classic bottom signals matter when etf outflows and macro headwinds are this persistent?

and: where do you think the bottom is 63k cycle low, 60k, or something lower?