LFVN has seen quite a volatile few days this week with Tuesday being the most confusing/scary, but imo the week was good. My thoughts for the week below:
**Monday**
The ex-div date on Monday had lenders recall shares to qualify for the dividend and made a bigger impact towards the stock price than I thought it would, going up >30%. Since the ex-div date played a big part on Monday's price increase, it's fair to assume that the day after would have the opposite effect when institutions lent their shares out again.
**Tuesday**
Tuesday's pre-market was a huge bull trap. The price was going up rapidly in pre-market, but right at open, the stock price dropped significantly. There may have been the culmulative effect of shorts re-entering after the ex-div date, short scalpers that shorted and covered the same day, and profit-takers. It's hard to say how much of each occurred, but with a 2M+ trading volume and over 200k shares shorted and covered activity, there's plenty of room for anything to have happened.
[Tue live-activity](https://preview.redd.it/n7d5iz695t5h1.png?width=1111&format=png&auto=webp&s=7948b01287b44de4c4f2ef60a96935f4c6b1596e)
So anyone buying in at Tuesday open got burned, but otherwise, the SP went back to Monday's price. Wednesday's data and price action showed LFVN's SP stabilized and consolidated, ready for the next gap up (or down). Wednesday's CTB minimum is back at 368% compared to Tuesday's 153% and IBKR is showing no availability. Shorts and profit-takers had less room to work with compared to Tuesday while the stock was finding its floor.
[Wed live-activity](https://preview.redd.it/0kw72uya5t5h1.png?width=1890&format=png&auto=webp&s=1cac65a5454d9aa7ac7813f8ca40d184310c8b9a)
**Thursday**
Huge gap up at open, fell and consolidated. I can't call it a bull trap since if you bought right at open you would have been up throughout the entire day, but it does reinforce that the pattern that the stock likes to sig-saw upwards rather than going up in a straight line.
**Friday**
Probably the most eventful day along with Tuesday, but in a good way. The stock ended up significantly while macro was bleeding out of its ass. I think this is neutral, macro generally doesn't impact shortsqueeze plays. If anything, it reminds me of peak GME squeeze when the general stock market was going down, presumably because shorts had to sell stock to pay for their margin calls. I'm not saying that's what happened or will happen with LFVN, but it's a fun thought.
[Friday overview](https://preview.redd.it/e2z0qaog5t5h1.png?width=3814&format=png&auto=webp&s=72abda0d88485d867731b29b3f673da5daf43501)
[Friday live chart](https://preview.redd.it/emd379eh5t5h1.png?width=1891&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f976a181f0c1185a28de46944780f28322ee406)
Anyways, Friday's data is important because the stock went up while we saw positive price action **in addition to** significant net covering and high(er than average) availability. This is the first real sign of high-conviction shorts finally giving up. It has the highest net covering at 90k and shorts are actively choosing not to use the availibility to re-enter or establish new short positions, which is what we've been seeing up until now. And with the profit-takers who entered at $4-6 who have already mostly sold being gone, the SP has room to steadily go up. Current longs are showing more and more conviction, disincentivizing shorts from estabilishing new positions.
**The week ahead**
From this week's data and price action so far, it would probably be wise to not chase the stock and FOMO right at open if the SP is significantly elevated at open. Volume is low premarket and short scalpers/profit-takers are more likely to try to sell/short immediately. If you want to buy in/more, it's safer to wait for the dip or to see if the price is sustaining itself throughout the first half of the trading day. That recommendation is flawed though since it's based on hindsight analysis. You also would risk on potentially missing the "big one", so ultimately, it's up to each person's personal risk/reward tolerance. Overall the whole week shows us that a big part of the SP volatility is from profit-takers, but they only have a finite number of shares to sell - shown by how they've exhausted selling on Tue/Wed, giving the stock another floor for its next gap up. Hopefully we continue to see higher and higher lows.
Coming back to my tug-of-war analogy \[LFVN 3.5 - A War of Attrition\](https://redd.it/1ttks57), the floor is still a bit more important than the ceiling at this stage. Keeping the price stable while shorts are eating an avg 250% CTB daily will exhaust out even the most confident shorts. And, **even if the CTB% stays the same or drops a little bit, the actual $ amount of interest gets higher as the stock price rises.** For example, assume 100,000 LFVN shares short and CTB @ 250%:
https://preview.redd.it/3pwnl6ii5t5h1.png?width=1348&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c91d71218f40c8e0cabf5d13e29e177fec7aab7
To me, having a stable floor is important enough that I would even go so far as to suggest taking a little bit of profit or hedging (eg. with OTM CCs), so that you have powder to add on dips rather than panic sell. But again, with both options, some of your shares/calls might miss out on the main squeeze so figure out if it's worth it for you personally. Many of the big squeezes took weeks to months and had their own peaks and troughs before the big move. For example, AMC took 3 weeks to go from $2 to $20 in Jan 2021, back down to $5 in Feb, up to $15 in March 2021, before peaking at $73 in May (pre-split prices). Remember, because of its unprecedented CTB, time is LFVN's biggest asset.
Good luck.
Past LFVN DD's if you're interested:
\[LFVN 3.5 - A War of Attrition\]([https://redd.it/1ttks57](https://redd.it/1ttks57))
\[LFVN PT 3 – Just the Beginning\]([https://redd.it/1totvum](https://redd.it/1totvum))
\[LFVN – I Didn't Hear No Bell\]([https://redd.it/1t6pzif](https://redd.it/1t6pzif))
\[LFVN – Either It Squeezes or My Nuts Will\]([https://redd.it/1sxqb0f](https://redd.it/1sxqb0f))