5 of the 6 biotech names I posted 5 weeks ago hit their catalyst (and the 1 that hasn't)

Five weeks back, I posted a basket of small/mid-cap biotech catalyst setups. Enough has happened that I owe a scorecard, and I'm including the one that hasn't worked so this isn't just a highlight reel. Disclosure up front, I'm long several of these, and none of this is advice, do your own work.

VRDN (Viridian), the highest-conviction name. FDA approved veligrotug on June 26, launched as Lumvoa, the first drug cleared for both active and chronic thyroid eye disease. The thesis (clean Phase 3s, funded through profitability) played out. Stock \~+13%; a lot of the approval was already derisked into it.

REPL (Replimune), the "broken-regulatory, data-is-strong" reversal. FDA accepted the RP1 BLA resubmission (advanced melanoma) on June 26; AdCom expected late July, PDUFA Aug 2. Roughly doubled from the flag (closer to 3x if you rode it from the \~$3 lows earlier).

OTLK (Outlook), won its Lytenava appeal via formal dispute resolution in late May, then the FDA accepted the resubmitted BLA in June. More than doubled. One caveat, they did a small registered-direct raise in there, so there's dilution, size accordingly.

PALI (Palisade Bio), FDA cleared the IND for PALI-2108 and a global Phase 2 in ulcerative colitis (June 29). Still early and they'll need capital, but the asymmetry is starting to show.

OSUR (OraSure), first of two expected FDA clearances landed (expanded STI testing, June 11). +25%, and cash still covers most of the market cap.

AKBA (Akebia), the one that hasn't hit. No catalyst yet and it's the riskiest of the group (I flagged it as a start-small \~0.5% position). Thesis intact, but I'm not going to pretend it worked when it's roughly flat.

Same lens as always: market-cap first, cash vs burn, options IVs, Bio hedge funds increase or decrease, insiders buy/sell, and a dated catalyst you can actually wait for.

And yeah, not at all financial advice. I hold positions in several of these. Your entries and sizing should be your own.