Never bet against Google. Google is in its strongest position ever.

I stopped doing cheerleading for Google ever since its returns exceeded my expectations. But now it seems this is necessary again because I m seeing lots of people starting to doubt Google's valuation.

Someone posted a very sad, poorly put together bear thesis on Google assuming some arbitrary heuristics benchmarks to show the stock is overvalued. But let me tell you it is not overvalued. So I m sharing my side of the story, on how I have been viewing Google.

\- AI Search is even more profitable and more useful than ordinary Google Search. AI Search also put even more distance between Google and the other search engines. Websites are also getting more advanced, PWAs, Web 3.0 etc. The ecosystem gets stronger with Google at its core.

\- Android + Google Play. So much potential Google products can be distributed through the Android platform. Mobile apps/gaming is also growing way faster than PC.

\- GCP. GCP is supported by in-house AI infra and Google's own global telecom infra. This is an insane advantage.

\- Youtube is actually gaining more viewer time and beating all other streaming services, even when it is already at pole position. Youtube has also only recently became profitable, margins will expand further.

In every of Google's core business, it is the strongest (in actual fact, monopolistic) player in the fastest growing segments. It owns the best of the best businesses that exists in this world. You gotta pay for the growth that comes with this.

People are also ignoring the sums of parts coming from non-profitable but big businesses.

\- Gemini/Deepmind alone is a trillion dollar business that has not been monetised, believe it or not. Huge optionality value here too. If AGI is achieved, the market value will literally be exponentially higher.

\- Waymo which was valued at $126 billion with a TAM of trillions

\- Other potential moonshots from its labs. There are no other Mag 7 that has the kind of innovative engine Google has.

\- Equity in Space X, Anthropic, and host of of other companies

These alone can add up to 2 trillion or more in valuation.

**TLDR:** Google is King in the tech world. Google has disciplined and very good capital allocation. It is shareholder friendly, not too conservative and has proven it will do whatever it takes to win. This startup winner mentality is very rare. People say never bet against America. In America, I will say never bet against Google. There is a reason why Google always commanded a huge premium PE of 30x ++. It is now back to its historical valuation in a stronger than ever position. It is not overvalued. BUY.

Edit: Comments are negative on GOOG. Ignore them. They are basement kids who use ChatGPT for everything, they don't eat out, don't buy stuff and don't travel. All they do is sit in front of ChatGPT and ask nerdy stuff. That's why they think Search is getting outcompeted. These sad people also think 30 PE bad and think NVO, Paypal and Nike are the best investments ever.