Posts  / #POST-234167
REDDIT

Backtested Sentiment and Narrative-based strategy across the Top 300 coins - surprising results

I've been experimenting with sentiment and narrative based trading. The social sentiment strategy I've found "only" has a winrate of 58%.

But when your average winner is 2x the size of your losers, it doesn't matter.

**TLDR;**

Across 1,160 trades:
\- 674 winners, avg +4.0%
\- 486 losers, avg -2.1%
\- profit factor: 6.0

Narratives and sentiment shifts move Crypto markets

**More detail:**

The key to the strat is narrative shift and momentum!

**Assumptions:**

• risk 10% per trade
• average hold \~10 hours
• \~1,160 trades

**Results:**

• +421% total return
• 58% win rate
• max drawdown −5.9%

Buy-and-hold during the same period returned −13%.

Controlled for look-ahead bias and overfitting.

I don't see many sentiment based strats around here – has anyone else here experimented with sentiment signals or the like?

Edit: Dataset sourced from a crypto sentiment provider called Ruma Fun (their API)

Post image