The world waits for $MU's Micron ER today ATC. Buy/ sell IV decision time! Buy for me! Logic below!

https://preview.redd.it/zrt3d7r9p99h1.png?width=856&format=png&auto=webp&s=85f2fddc8aaeb400d5fbd63a133dcd0664ac66c4

**ER trades are my favorite and today's $MU opportunity is as fun as they get.**

2DTE ATM straddles pricing in roughly 8.9% move with a 68% CI. Using 2DTE and 9DTE options, I calculate the market's expected vol crush to be -5.4%.

Historic median absolute value of opening gap move post-ER is 6.6% with a 9.8% standard deviation. Adjusting for expected crush, past ER moves clock in at 11.1%.

Factoring in other metrics like VRP, Adams & Neururer Sector Research (*Review of Financial Economics*, *2022*), implied move z-score, etc. etc., most signals align and tell me long vol is the way to go.

As always I construct a **defined risk, non-directional trade** to maximize EV based on the vol surface, enter the trade going into tonight's close, wait until price discovery occurs around 9:45 a.m. in the morning and then exit, win or lose, no tears. 1% of my book is dedicated to the trade and I never deviate from my established disciplines.

Happy trading!

**Edit**: For those curious - not FA - I'm long IC expiry 6/26/26, 925/930 put debit, 1100/1105 call debit.