Do you think cyber defence stocks are going to have a really strong run in the future?
I feel like my bullish thesis for cyber defence stocks is "obvious" but maybe someone can chime in with their thoughts. Whether you agree or disagree.
Mythos has proven that even the most robust open source software and presumably hardware, is still full of exploits and vulnerabilities. So if open source software is full of holes, I can only imagine how much worse closed source software is. It's only a matter of time before one of these Mythos like models gets out into the public domain and into the hands of organised cyber criminals and even basement hackers. Also nation states like Russia, China and North Korea will definitely be weaponizing their own versions in due time. Every organisation from the military to the government to banking to healthcare to large companies are going to be extremely worried about securing their systems.
Therefore I expect cyber defence spending to increase significantly over the years. Not just in prevention, but also in resilience and backup because if armies of LLMs are going 24/7 trying to break into your systems, the slightest vulnerability and it will find it.
The future of warfare is undoubtably going to be heavily focused on cyber warfare. Why risk dropping bombs on your enemies infrastructure when you can just launch a malware attack that is undetectable and can cripple the entire grid or system.
Look at what Mossad and the NSA did to Iran's Natanz nuclear centrifuges, and that was entirely human developed, no AI assistance at all.
The EU recently passed the NIS2 directive which mandates companies secure their data with encrypted air gapped backups. And also to implement strict "cyber hygiene" practices. I expect the US to follow a similar path very soon.
More data than ever is stored in the cloud and it's only going to grow exponentially with the rise of AI agents and AI usage on the consumer end. Currently the amount of data in the cloud is increasing by 25% year over year, but this is expected to increase to a whopping 140% year over year through to 2035.
That is a staggering amount of data that needs to be secured and backed up.
I really believe cyber defence stocks are going to experience explosive demand over the next 10 years and I'm not just saying that because I am invested in the sector, to me the path we're on is painting a very clear picture.
What do you guys think?