Us memory bulls all reference earnings and low multiples. We all point to shortages and buildouts. Memory bears say memory is a commodity, that current and near earnings have already been priced in. We reply that Micron, for example, has forward contracts into 2030. We note that the old memory profile has changed. We argue that money is still getting poured into AI data centers and that not only will they need memory for those buildouts but that those buildouts and the updates will require more memory than they do today.
Yet even on AI infra green days memory doesn't move as much as we expect it to. So what new information is going to cause the market to give memory a higher multiple? What do we expect is going to move the sentiment because as much as I'd like a stock price to be about fundamentals, the price is what people are willing to pay for it.